Predictions For New Media In 2012

Well, I didn’t score as well on my 2011 predictions as I did in previous years. Lets review those first …

The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. AT&T is still pathetic – and the iPhone Verizon did great business but not enough to call my prediction as good. 1 down.

The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. Wrong there too. 2 down. Gotta say, good on Apple for keeping profit going though.

Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. 3 down. Microsoft. Wow. Not good.

We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. Finally got one right.

Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. I’d say I’m good there too.

I got a 40% – bad for predictions but I could probably get a job in the Congress or be a bank president somewhere …

And so my 2012 predictions.

We still stop asking people if they have a texting plan and start asking people what number we should text them at. The power of cross-channel marketing mixed with the realities of message fatigue requires this very important play.

Google Plus will see a significant reboot of some sort to make her relevant past new media bloggers and authors (of books about Google Plus). Despite the “numbers” inside, it has no real penetration yet (past the digerati) and will have to get these numbers some other way than it it is doing so now. She’s too big to fail but isn’t going in the right direction right now. Something has to change.

YouTube will crack the annotations and overlay code for HTML5 video (tvs, phones, etc.) and Facebook will answer the ads in Mobile Facebook question. YouTube is more important off the computer screen than on and Facebook users are doing more and more things mobile every day. The future of all this is off our computer screens. Anyone creating content or marketing better embrace this reality quickly.

“Cutting cable” will become a popular term. Between the most recent Xbox update and the Superbowl streaming online in 2012, the reality of what many of us have been doing for years will become more mainstream. This will also result in less “smart money” heading to the networks (and their cable plays at least).

And, finally, the (inspiring) Louis CK million dollars in download story will inspire a lot of people to charge less for their content than they should resulting in even less money for independent media creators in 2012. This model works in very specific environments (and a cable tv show doesn’t hurt either) and should’t be taken as the path by which too many will try.

There they are. Tell me how I’m wrong now, and we’ll let 365 days provide the real proof same time next year.

Dead In 2010

I tweeted last week that “Acer Chairman says iPad impact not serious … then offers Easter Bunny job as Chief Strategy Director.” Apologies to the Easter Bunny in suggesting he’d take such a demotion but, … let’s face it, with the iPad, the Netbook is dead in 2010.

Today I sit in front of my new MacBook Air typing this in – and I realized something. She’s got no CD/DVD drive, no drives at all. The spinning disk is dead in 2010.

With announcements of “App Store” for Windows, Mac, Windows Phone 7 and more, I felt a bit sad as I put my iLife 11 DVD in my iMac (the Air came with it preloaded (w a USB Restore Key). I’ll never do that again. Shrinkwrap software distribution is dead in 2010.

This morning I sat on the exercise bike and chose from more shows than I could possibly want on my iPad through Hulu Plus and Netflix (delivered over ATT 3G none the less). I love the new show “The Good Guys” but couldn’t even tell you what night it is on (and I remain a TV junkie). Sure, I canceled Cable TV in 2007 but the family simply doesn’t miss it anymore. Yes, Comcast delivers the Webernet to my home but I got Clear and Verizon as options too. No, everybody doesn’t have as many choices, but we do have choices. The Cable Company as monopoly is dead in 2010.

Cali Lewis is at Revision3 and even Adam Curry has taken a “soft exit” from the company formally known as Podshow. Mevio, the company who first sold Podcasters of the dream of quitting the day job, is dead in 2010.

What else is dead in 2010?

What are you going to change in 2011 as a result?

Xbox 360 With Zune HD Integration (Fall Update Preview) – Fascinating Implications – Is This The Box I’m Looking For?

The TV on the Internet world has had a bunch of interesting announcements this week. We now know Apple TV is running IOS on the inside (TV Apps anyone?) and Hulu+ is coming to the Roku box. When will we get that ultimate box?

Does Microsoft have a chance with all in this?

Let’s cover the big issues (in my mind at least): Price, Netflix integration, Hulu+ integration, Movies to purchase/rent, Television to purchase/rent:

Roku: $69 and up – Netflix yes / Hulu yes / Movies yes (Amazon) / Television yes (Amazon)
Apple TV: $99 – Netflix yes / Hulu no / Movies yes / Television limited
Xbox: $199 and up – Netflix yes / Hulu yes / Movies yes / Television yes
Boxee Box: $249 – Netflix yes / Hulu yes / Movies yes / Television yes (free/paid)

We just don’t know enough about Google TV (yet) to include here.

Microsoft sent an Xbox with the Fall Update Preview Beta. Very nice integration. Haven’t been able to talk about it until today. BTW, here are Engadget’s thoughts.

Yes, Roku is cheaper but she doesn’t let me play Gears of War – nuff said.

I think Microsoft has something very cool here – but I’d love your thoughts. I got everything I want on this device (minus iPhone integration, of course) and don’t know or see how Apple can deliver on their Apple TV platform (or at least what we know of it today). Boxee is more expensive and does a lot less. Yes, I have some free Internet TV viewing options but there are ways to get that on the Xbox as well.

Embedded below is a video walkthrough of the Zune stuff on the new Xbox Fall Update Preview. More on that over at ZuneLuv.com.

Does Microsoft’s (And Everyone Else’s) Future Media Integration Plans Kill The Indie Producer? Is Felicia Day A Star Or What?

Today as I sat through an amazing presentation by Microsoft that included Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr, Steven Spielberg and Felicia Day (you can read the details of the Xbox/Zune E3 announcements here), I had to ask myself a single question:

Where is the indie producer in this?

As I look at Hulu’s attempt to kill Boxee earlier this week, I had to ask myself a single question:

Where is the indie producer in this?

As the products for media consumption get “cooler and cooler” (take a look at the Project Natal video – amazing stuff), I can’t but help wonder if it is going to get harder and harder to get yourself inside of the interface.

Last week brought us a few glimpses of the Zune HD interface – and it looks like Podcasting is still in there. There are rumors of Podcasting in iPhone 3.0 allowing video downloads over the air. YouTube remains open for the indie – but that is about it.

How can I (you) get my (your) content into these channels? Should I be trying? If I can’t get in, …

BTW, was thrilled to see Felcia Day on stage – even more so than the Fab 2 (and a director I really haven’t cared for since Close Encounters). She should remind us all that there is room for us in this game if we play our cards right.

Thoughts?

Zune HD – Details Emerge From Microsoft – And They Might Have Got It Right In Version 3

ZuneHD.com has official details from Microsoft about their Zune HD product. We’re guessing Microsoft got tired of all the rumors.

Looks very cool – and looks like a key player – or at least potentially so.

I’m heading out to S3 next week and will be at the Xbox Press Event where they will demonstrate the new interface (got a pass to the press event). I hope to get to play with the device as well.

Could Microsoft have actually got this right in version 3?

Visit Zune HD for more coverage. As the details come in, they’ll track them all there.