Predictions For New Media In 2012

Well, I didn’t score as well on my 2011 predictions as I did in previous years. Lets review those first …

The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. AT&T is still pathetic – and the iPhone Verizon did great business but not enough to call my prediction as good. 1 down.

The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. Wrong there too. 2 down. Gotta say, good on Apple for keeping profit going though.

Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. 3 down. Microsoft. Wow. Not good.

We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. Finally got one right.

Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. I’d say I’m good there too.

I got a 40% – bad for predictions but I could probably get a job in the Congress or be a bank president somewhere …

And so my 2012 predictions.

We still stop asking people if they have a texting plan and start asking people what number we should text them at. The power of cross-channel marketing mixed with the realities of message fatigue requires this very important play.

Google Plus will see a significant reboot of some sort to make her relevant past new media bloggers and authors (of books about Google Plus). Despite the “numbers” inside, it has no real penetration yet (past the digerati) and will have to get these numbers some other way than it it is doing so now. She’s too big to fail but isn’t going in the right direction right now. Something has to change.

YouTube will crack the annotations and overlay code for HTML5 video (tvs, phones, etc.) and Facebook will answer the ads in Mobile Facebook question. YouTube is more important off the computer screen than on and Facebook users are doing more and more things mobile every day. The future of all this is off our computer screens. Anyone creating content or marketing better embrace this reality quickly.

“Cutting cable” will become a popular term. Between the most recent Xbox update and the Superbowl streaming online in 2012, the reality of what many of us have been doing for years will become more mainstream. This will also result in less “smart money” heading to the networks (and their cable plays at least).

And, finally, the (inspiring) Louis CK million dollars in download story will inspire a lot of people to charge less for their content than they should resulting in even less money for independent media creators in 2012. This model works in very specific environments (and a cable tv show doesn’t hurt either) and should’t be taken as the path by which too many will try.

There they are. Tell me how I’m wrong now, and we’ll let 365 days provide the real proof same time next year.

My 2011 New Media Predictions

First things first … how did I do on last year’s predictions? I’m going to call 3 out of 5. First commentary on what I predicted for this year.

  • Yup – There will be no real competitor to the iPhone in 2010. Sorry guys but Android still isn’t a real competitor and Windows Phone 7, well, …
  • Yup – “App Stores” will become the goto model for everyone. Ford cars … nuff said. A little silly if you ask me, but it certainly has become the goto model.
  • Nope – We’ll see some desperate last gasps for relevancy from the cable companies. I was right in the “gasps for relevancy” part but I was wrong from where they would come. It’s the “Networks” that want us to take them seriously and are hiring people to make sure we don’t dare watch Chuck on our Google TVs. I still get a chuckle every time Hulu reminds me that I can watch said Chuck on Monday nights at 8p with 4 times the commercials. The Comcast/NBC merger talks will get fascinating as well. The cry for relevancy (as opposed to the rallying cry for innovation) will continue well into next year. Eventually, they’ll get it.
  • Yep – Hulu 1/1/2010 will be dramatically different than Hulu 12/31/2010.Twice as many commercials and very few 15 second spots anymore. I was really surprised this year with HuluPlus but the downright silly implementation of it proves the point that this model isn’t ready for the prime time it streams.
  • Nope – The “App Economy” and easy distribution and product creation models will flood the economy with a bunch of great stuff at prices that can’t sustain businesses. It’s gonna be messy. The only place it got messy was EAs brilliant Christmas iPhone price slashing. I still think it will get messy but the economies of scale do make it fascinating (Angry Birds anyone …?)

But now, … 2011 …

  • The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. Some could call the Verizon iPhone a prediction as well but the clues are too clear for that one. Bringing choice to the iPhone economy will increase sales, lower prices and increase quality as AT&T suddenly finds herself with a competitor again. All good for us. All bad for AT&T shareholders.
  • The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. I have yet to find an unsatisfied iPad user – I’ve only found people put off by the $499 entry point. That will change this year. Bye bye netbooks …
  • Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. This might be more of a prayer than a prediction but she’s gonna have to do something very big and very out of the box if she wants to matter at all by 2015. Windows Phone 7 ain’t it. Kinect (although fun) ain’t it. Office 2015 ain’t it. Operating systems are dead. Shrink wrap Office Suites are dead. They’re too late for phone. It has to be something new from the cloud (entertainment is their best best) or something radical in gaming.
  • We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. I’m talking television and movies you start watching on your phone on the commute home and move to your television or computer upon arrival. They have the infrastructure to do it and have more than enough money to make friends quickly with the right partners. They will – regardless of how lame GoogleTV is right now.
  • Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. Much the same way marketers no longer shake with excitement over the terms PPC or Autoresponders, you’ll find less hype over Facebook and YouTube advertising. You will, however, quickly see it as a part of every serious marketer’s arsenal.

There we go … your thoughts?

Google TV – What It Could Mean

I finally got my mind around Google TV and what it “means.”

And it is big.

First of all, it is real competition in the “Internet video on your television” space. With Apple TV admitting being nothing but a hobby and everyone else caring about their efforts with the same passion BP seems to care about plugging the leak, it’s easy to see why we’re getting nowhere in this space. I’ve written previously about the Roku box and Boxee’s plans but what really has happened in the last 6 months, year?

With Google taking this space seriously, we’re finally going to see some passion and growth past what we’re seeing right now. And, with their war chest, this nonsense with Hulu blocking Boxee type situations will be met with a legal war chest that can make things happen. Competition is a very good thing.

But, more importantly, we’ve got another issue at play that is even more vital.

Google in this space represents a true convergence box. This is the “old and new media playing together” dream we’ve had for years but have never seen delivered. I have in my basement plenty of boxes that put obscure Internet video on my screen and I have owned / seen / been briefed on / and have beta tested an equal amount of boxes that place nice with “old media” over the intertubes. The Xbox doesn’t do YouTube (let alone a decent Podcast option) and the Apple TV is as walled as a walled garden can get (even to the point of making it too weak to stream Flash well). When we talk about Tivo or traditional cable boxes, I just have to shudder. fILS and Twitter – silly – nothing else.

Boxee is the best hope in the underdog category (and I applaud Avner’s statements that they can work in a Google TV world) but even their approach to stuff puts a line between the two worlds. A new episode of Burn Notice goes right into my queue but the latest episode of The Totally Rad show does not. It’s just not “all coming together” the way it is supposed to … Yet. Roku is nice for what it does but the channels that aren’t there don’t appear to be coming.

At CES this year I got really nervous watching boxes from the “big names” designed (I believe purposely) to squash out the new media space. Sure, they were still lousy, but they were the only element seeing growth. And they might grow into something acceptable before we get our butts in gear.

Google TV can change this. The commercials speak of a world where the Web and Desperate Housewives can live in peaceful harmony and I’m betting my future that the box that let’s them is the box I want to get behind. Google has the war chest and moxie this space needs.

And they have my full support.

Do they have yours?

Oh yeah, their ownership of YouTube is key too :-).

Free Podcast Training – Tonight Only!

UPDATE: The live event is completed/over. If you’d like to grab the recording (and we got a good one), sign up at http://www.podcastsecrets.com.

Tonight at 5p Pacific, 8p Eastern, I’ll be recording LIVE a new presentation called “The Seven Deadly Sins Most Podcasters Make And What You Can Do To Avoid Them.” It’s for the coming Podcast Secrets 3.0 class – but this one is a free.

The content is SOLID. It’s the summary of what I’ve learned in helping Podcasters for the last 5 years.

There will be a surprise or two along the way as well – but here is the access information:

Again, we start prompty at 5p Pacific / 8p Eastern. There is more than an hour of content in there – but we’ll get as close to 60 minutes as we can.

I reserve to the right to charge for this content at a later date but between now and then, your access is free!

Podcast Secrets has a Twitter account – it’s http://www.twitter.com/podcastsecrets. It is also at Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/podcastsecrets. Would it be silly to mention the YouTube page at http://www.youtube.com/user/podcastsecrets?

Focus And The New Media Maker

One of the better quality training pieces I ever put together came from a Skype Screenshare where we recorded the entire thing live with no takes. It was for Andy Jenkins and the Video Boss product.

Now, I spent LESS time on that bad boy than you’d think. I put together the slide deck in about a half an hour (I do live this stuff, it comes easily) and “recorded” the whole thing real time. Andy took the recordings (the recording from my machine was actually just a backup), sent them to his video editors, and out came my part of his piece. I did nothing after we were done.

I’ll make very good money as a result of that 3 hour project – where I only did the “fun” stuff.

The video of Ed Dale and I picking up our iPads is a ton of fun and makes both of us look much cooler than we really are. That was done entirely with a Zi8 camera where I uploaded the clips to my editor from LAX Wifi before I jumped on the plane home. Out popped a YouTube Video worth watching. The engagement on that video as tracked by YouTube is amazing – I never seen a better chart.

Some of the best teleseminar recordings you’ll ever hear from me came from me picking up the phone a few minutes before start and hanging up when everyone else did. An editor picked up the recording and made the magic. I went back to that whole content thing.

I’ve written 5 books. 2 of them as a ghost. The one I’m proudest of was completed in 20% of the time of any of the other books.

Now, the flip side of the story.

I have sold product that, although worth every dime, got more hours from Paul in the editing and rendering department than from the content creation side of things. I have no doubt in my mind at all that if I had taken the time spent doing what I could easily have hired out, I could have sold much more product – and made a better profit after paying out the editor.

I won’t even dare go into how much more fun I could have had.

Podcasts. Oh Podcasts. Content creation – 15 minutes / editing and publishing and syndication – 40 minutes. Why do I do this to myself?

Yes, there’s a fun little buzz that comes from handling every part of the media creation process. Being the “talent” and the “editor” lets you create stuff that is entirely you. Having your fingers in every part of the process brings a power rush.

Here are the questions?

Is creating stuff that is “entirely you” something you should be spending time on? Is it arrogance of the highest order to think you can play all parts of this piece better than anyone else? Is the power rush of having control of everything too often met with a crash of having to have done it all?

We gotta do better.

Mom once told me “just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.”

There’s amazing wisdom there that I need to relearn on a weekly/daily basis.

Every time I’ve grabbed some help, I’ve done better. Every time I’ve played the solo game I’ve produced less and felt a lot worse.

How about you? You a loner? Do you actually think it’s good for you?

How are you gonna get help?

P.s., As I wrote this my video editor texted me with a question about a title for something. There might be a video on YouTube by the time I’m done. And, as a bonus, content will be much better than anything I’ve edited yet.

Weekend Roundup: Returns And Launches Edition

Old favorites are coming back (in some new ways) this weekend:

Speaking of the weekend, have a great one!

Weekend Roundup: New Ways To Think About Internet Marketing Edition

Are you noticing the trend of more “realistic” views on the whole Internet Marketing thing?

yeah, realism, it’s the “new black.”

Is Your Next Book An App?

I’ve been saying for a few years now that the real definition of Web 2.0 is “your content on your customer’s terms.” Everything really comes down to that as far as I’m concerned.

Techcrunch recently published a piece that says that authors need to publish their “next book” as an App (instead of an iBook). Great read – do it now.

While I like the concept, I’m not sure if that’s the direction. Perhaps the article should have asked if your next book should also be released as an App.

Yes, our content on your customer’s terms means a book isn’t enough.

But just an app isn’t enough either.

Your stuff needs to be available on a dead tree edition, an instant streaming edition, a phone edition, a pad edition, a plastic disk edition, an audio edition, a video edition, etc.

If you’ve watched the whole Vook thing, you might be thinking it’s the future. I’m calling it a gimmick. Show me any real content ONLY available on the VOOK format and I’ll change my mind.

So, content creators, I’m gonna suggest this simple fact: your future requires that you create your content on as many formats and platforms as possible.

Your thoughts?

Weekend Roundup: What Happened To Monday?

Yes, missed blog and Podcasts this week. Too into the Operation iPad Project. Back to normal next week, but here are some links to keep you warm and informed:

  • Songs Of Love is a great organization that puts some new media creators in a position of great service. Read what Geoff Smith is doing with them.
  • Jim Louderback wrote a piece called I support Web TV and I vote that is a must read.
  • Podcast Secret’s Student and cool guy Fred Castaneda has an episode of (one of his) most excellent podcasts about the iPad as a business tool.

Have a great weekend. My youngest turns 7 this weekend.

8 Years Free – Here’s What’s Next

It’s a very special day for me: 8 years ago today was the last thing I’ll ever have that will resemble a day job. The Internet has been veryverygoodtome and it’s time for me to give back.

Note: This is a work and concept in process. I’ll be editing this a LOT based on what I hear back from you. As you’ll see, we’ve got a site dedicated to the conversation, but please read nothing definitive into what I write today (other than the fact that I LOVE this concept and will be pouring a lot of time and effort into it). Also, please don’t – I DON’T WANT YOUR MONEY on this project.

Problem: The very nature of the Internet is that anyone, anyplace, anytime, anywhere can produce and publish content. I embrace (and love) this reality but it results with this simple fact: The lack of standards and content spam is preventing the growth we were hoping for.

Solution: The Internet has allowed us to publish whatever we want. Let’s use that same Internet to publish open media standards that will take us to the next level.

Paul’s Answer: I’ve started something called The Open Media Standards Foundation. Before you read another word, 2 things: A) I DON’T WANT YOUR MONEY FOR THIS and B) I HAVE NO DESIRE TO “GO AGAINST” OR “UNDO” THE WORK ANYONE ELSE HAS DONE AT THIS POINT.

It starts with what I call the Content Principles Document. It’s a simple list (and simple is the key here, help me keep this simple) of principles that content creators embrace. This will, in theory, grow an audience that can consume our content with considerably more trust than the content they currently consume online.

To be truthful, there is alot more here (and, again, I don’t want your money), but this Content Principles Document is the first step.

So, here’s what I’m asking for … can you visit the current revision of the document, give it a good read, and make a comment on how we can make it better?

I think the industry can and will be in a much better place if we do it right. Here’s to doing it right.

If this site has helped you at all, could you help this industry by making a comment?

Please comment at the OMSF site – not here.