Well, I didn’t score as well on my 2011 predictions as I did in previous years. Lets review those first …
The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. AT&T is still pathetic – and the iPhone Verizon did great business but not enough to call my prediction as good. 1 down.
The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. Wrong there too. 2 down. Gotta say, good on Apple for keeping profit going though.
Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. 3 down. Microsoft. Wow. Not good.
We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. Finally got one right.
Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. I’d say I’m good there too.
I got a 40% – bad for predictions but I could probably get a job in the Congress or be a bank president somewhere …
And so my 2012 predictions.
We still stop asking people if they have a texting plan and start asking people what number we should text them at. The power of cross-channel marketing mixed with the realities of message fatigue requires this very important play.
Google Plus will see a significant reboot of some sort to make her relevant past new media bloggers and authors (of books about Google Plus). Despite the “numbers” inside, it has no real penetration yet (past the digerati) and will have to get these numbers some other way than it it is doing so now. She’s too big to fail but isn’t going in the right direction right now. Something has to change.
YouTube will crack the annotations and overlay code for HTML5 video (tvs, phones, etc.) and Facebook will answer the ads in Mobile Facebook question. YouTube is more important off the computer screen than on and Facebook users are doing more and more things mobile every day. The future of all this is off our computer screens. Anyone creating content or marketing better embrace this reality quickly.
“Cutting cable” will become a popular term. Between the most recent Xbox update and the Superbowl streaming online in 2012, the reality of what many of us have been doing for years will become more mainstream. This will also result in less “smart money” heading to the networks (and their cable plays at least).
And, finally, the (inspiring) Louis CK million dollars in download story will inspire a lot of people to charge less for their content than they should resulting in even less money for independent media creators in 2012. This model works in very specific environments (and a cable tv show doesn’t hurt either) and should’t be taken as the path by which too many will try.
There they are. Tell me how I’m wrong now, and we’ll let 365 days provide the real proof same time next year.
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