Predictions For New Media In 2012

Well, I didn’t score as well on my 2011 predictions as I did in previous years. Lets review those first …

The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. AT&T is still pathetic – and the iPhone Verizon did great business but not enough to call my prediction as good. 1 down.

The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. Wrong there too. 2 down. Gotta say, good on Apple for keeping profit going though.

Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. 3 down. Microsoft. Wow. Not good.

We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. Finally got one right.

Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. I’d say I’m good there too.

I got a 40% – bad for predictions but I could probably get a job in the Congress or be a bank president somewhere …

And so my 2012 predictions.

We still stop asking people if they have a texting plan and start asking people what number we should text them at. The power of cross-channel marketing mixed with the realities of message fatigue requires this very important play.

Google Plus will see a significant reboot of some sort to make her relevant past new media bloggers and authors (of books about Google Plus). Despite the “numbers” inside, it has no real penetration yet (past the digerati) and will have to get these numbers some other way than it it is doing so now. She’s too big to fail but isn’t going in the right direction right now. Something has to change.

YouTube will crack the annotations and overlay code for HTML5 video (tvs, phones, etc.) and Facebook will answer the ads in Mobile Facebook question. YouTube is more important off the computer screen than on and Facebook users are doing more and more things mobile every day. The future of all this is off our computer screens. Anyone creating content or marketing better embrace this reality quickly.

“Cutting cable” will become a popular term. Between the most recent Xbox update and the Superbowl streaming online in 2012, the reality of what many of us have been doing for years will become more mainstream. This will also result in less “smart money” heading to the networks (and their cable plays at least).

And, finally, the (inspiring) Louis CK million dollars in download story will inspire a lot of people to charge less for their content than they should resulting in even less money for independent media creators in 2012. This model works in very specific environments (and a cable tv show doesn’t hurt either) and should’t be taken as the path by which too many will try.

There they are. Tell me how I’m wrong now, and we’ll let 365 days provide the real proof same time next year.

Please note: I reserve the right to delete comments that are offensive or off-topic.

  • Anonymous

    Good stuff..however I think we are already 2-3 years beyond asking if “you have a texting plan”… I’ve not heard nor asked that question in quite some time.

  • Anonymous

    I’d agree – but we’re not asking people for their sms number for follow-up en masse.

  • Christo Strom

    Next year, try a Top Ten List for your predictions. My top prediction for 2012 is that
    Cross Channel Marketing will be somewhere on that list of incredible business growth.

  • yogiwan

    1.  Texting will continue to grow but will remain outside the mainstream in corporate environments.  Even the consumerization of IT will not break this in 2012.  Remember Blackberry still has nearly a 50% share in this space.  It takes awhile for a behavior shift.

    2.  Google + will remain a digerati play but will grow with Internet marketing folks and their peers.  Will it become relevant for those other than online businesses  in 2012?  What is the value proposition for SMB and larger corporates?

    3.  The is a space to watch as there could be a major shift in the business model for video entertainment and this could have a related shift in investment dollars.  While there will be a lot of compelling content evolving from YouTube, will it mean the end of spectacular movies that work best on the big screen?  Not in the next year anyway.

    4  There has be a path toward the merger of computer delivery and “television” delivery for some time.  When the tipping point for end device agnostics comes is hard to tell but I doubt if it will be in 2012.   But certainly there will be more end users who will choose to eliminate the TV as a separate channel for content delivery and just use the networked computer (and smart devices) for everything.

    5.  No opinion here.

    Your Smart Kitchen
    (day job at the Center for Technology Innovation at PwC)

  • Anonymous

    thanks for your thoughts. this will be interesting to watch.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Christo.

  • Muhammad Siddique

    Gr8 thoughts Paul. Thanks for sharing…

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for enjoying.

  • Ryan Steinolfson

    Hey Paul… I do hope your correct about the overlays and annotations for TV’s and phones.  As more a more people are using their phones for everything and I am getting more and more of my traffic from mobile devices.  I spend so much time putting in those overlays it is ashame when the don’t work.  :)

  • Anonymous

    I hope so too. From a pragmatic standpoint, do you really think YouTube is gonna leave all that money on the table 😉

  • Xavier

    Give response to the lowest and non-effective relevant marketers according to your prediction please. You can help so much better in this way than giving your premonition.Thanks