My 2011 New Media Predictions

First things first … how did I do on last year’s predictions? I’m going to call 3 out of 5. First commentary on what I predicted for this year.

  • Yup – There will be no real competitor to the iPhone in 2010. Sorry guys but Android still isn’t a real competitor and Windows Phone 7, well, …
  • Yup – “App Stores” will become the goto model for everyone. Ford cars … nuff said. A little silly if you ask me, but it certainly has become the goto model.
  • Nope – We’ll see some desperate last gasps for relevancy from the cable companies. I was right in the “gasps for relevancy” part but I was wrong from where they would come. It’s the “Networks” that want us to take them seriously and are hiring people to make sure we don’t dare watch Chuck on our Google TVs. I still get a chuckle every time Hulu reminds me that I can watch said Chuck on Monday nights at 8p with 4 times the commercials. The Comcast/NBC merger talks will get fascinating as well. The cry for relevancy (as opposed to the rallying cry for innovation) will continue well into next year. Eventually, they’ll get it.
  • Yep – Hulu 1/1/2010 will be dramatically different than Hulu 12/31/2010.Twice as many commercials and very few 15 second spots anymore. I was really surprised this year with HuluPlus but the downright silly implementation of it proves the point that this model isn’t ready for the prime time it streams.
  • Nope – The “App Economy” and easy distribution and product creation models will flood the economy with a bunch of great stuff at prices that can’t sustain businesses. It’s gonna be messy. The only place it got messy was EAs brilliant Christmas iPhone price slashing. I still think it will get messy but the economies of scale do make it fascinating (Angry Birds anyone …?)

But now, … 2011 …

  • The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. Some could call the Verizon iPhone a prediction as well but the clues are too clear for that one. Bringing choice to the iPhone economy will increase sales, lower prices and increase quality as AT&T suddenly finds herself with a competitor again. All good for us. All bad for AT&T shareholders.
  • The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. I have yet to find an unsatisfied iPad user – I’ve only found people put off by the $499 entry point. That will change this year. Bye bye netbooks …
  • Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. This might be more of a prayer than a prediction but she’s gonna have to do something very big and very out of the box if she wants to matter at all by 2015. Windows Phone 7 ain’t it. Kinect (although fun) ain’t it. Office 2015 ain’t it. Operating systems are dead. Shrink wrap Office Suites are dead. They’re too late for phone. It has to be something new from the cloud (entertainment is their best best) or something radical in gaming.
  • We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. I’m talking television and movies you start watching on your phone on the commute home and move to your television or computer upon arrival. They have the infrastructure to do it and have more than enough money to make friends quickly with the right partners. They will – regardless of how lame GoogleTV is right now.
  • Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. Much the same way marketers no longer shake with excitement over the terms PPC or Autoresponders, you’ll find less hype over Facebook and YouTube advertising. You will, however, quickly see it as a part of every serious marketer’s arsenal.

There we go … your thoughts?

Please note: I reserve the right to delete comments that are offensive or off-topic.

  • http://twitter.com/LoveBellaAriana Bella Ariana

    It's going to be HUGE! You're looking at a statistic right here. Though, I already left at&t when my iphone was drooled to death by my child. (we moved to the outskirts of town and the service was terrible) So I just got an itouch so I could keep the apps and got a verizon ph. More than likely I wont be able to wait for my upgrade period in Dec and pay full price for it! Im SO excited. yippie

  • Davedadev

    Right … so the love of iPhone over Android is about functionality i.e. the inability of the iphone (4) to operate in one's left hand because the brain-dead idiots didn't understand when TOLD that shorting an antenna to ones body killed the signal. Or how about ANY of the other brain-dead stupid stuff that applied from day-1 e.g. no copy/paste initially (huh? On a Smart-phone!!!), No multi-tasking, no video calling as standard, no WiFi as standard, no 3G as standard etc. etc. Granted SOME of these have been fixed since but in virtually ALL cases AFTER the competition.

    Similar situation with the iPad SO MUCH LACK of functionality that it beggars belief – NO NORMAL USB connectivity (No memory stick or external USB storage capability – pretty damned fundamental these days), No multi-tasking (Duh!!!) No WiFi as standard – WHAT?!!! On what is supposed to be the ultimate portable computing platform!! No HDMI connection, etc. etc. ad nauseam – I suggest you take a look at the Adam Notion Ink tablet functionality and connectivity before making such puerile pronouncements.

    The ONLY people that buy Apple products (and stick with them) are the shallow logo junkies that would only buy Adidas or Nike despite there being vastly better, longer lasting, better value products. The people that are into Bling over substance. People who are into “Me, Me, Me”.

    Why should Apple dictate whose apps I can or can't use? Why should THEY get to decide that an app should be pulled from market DESPITE my wanting it? I am the customer, why should THEY get to dictate that I can not have an application that other iPhone users have already bought even though the application author still wants to sell it but isn't allowed.

    Get a life and grow up all of you – let's please focus on true quality not a false showy facade with little in true substance.

  • Davedadev

    If the best broadband you can get is slower than 6/2Mbps I'd worry more about the state of broadband land-line technology. I live in a rural area that was VERY slow to get broadband at all and I get 8/2Mbps. The typical UK speed now is 20/4 Mbps in residential areas and as ADSL2 rolls out further and fibre to the cab (and to the home) expands that is expected to improve rapidly.

    I'm pretty sure that 2Mbps uplink is NOT actually required on most mobile connections given that under such usage the vast bulk of traffic is download. (I KNOW there are exceptions, there always are). So I'm not clear why an upload capability of 7Mbps is provided or even necessary. A better method would be to allow QOS selection by the end user to split the available bandwidth for themselves.

  • http://www.AskJamesHolmes.com/ JamesHolmesOnline

    Paul -

    As usual you are right on track … I particularly with regard to the rapidly obsolete (sort of … ) laptop. I am about to acquire my first tablet device … looking hard at the Samsung Galaxy Tab. I am not sure that I will by purchasing another lap top from what I can see moving forward. I obviously wasn't an early mover, but I get it.

    I also believe that your social media prediction is one point… everywhere I go offline, restaurants, auto repair, facilities, the mall, Facebook and Twitter decals everywhere.

    Great blog and I love IMTW as well!

    James

  • paulcolligan

    It's all about the articles – I totally understand.

  • paulcolligan

    Consider subscribing as well so you're updated by email.

  • paulcolligan

    Welcome.

  • paulcolligan

    Don't you love it when people spend hours telling you to get a life?

  • paulcolligan

    Thanks James.

  • http://viettelonline.com/ HoaiPX

    Oh thanks, i appriciate that!

  • Jason D King

    I’m going to agree with everything except the IPad 2. While prices for first Gen iPads will be lower, you’re looking a secondary market (i.e. EBay). The vast majority of users will still be spending oodles of cash on 2.0. See Sony Playstation…

  • http://www.best-hostings.in/ Best web hosting company

    I am totally agree with you and it’s really a great post.

  • Anonymous

    Well, I made a prediction – you were able to just see what the market was doing ;-)

  • http://www.joomla-web-developer.com joomla developers

    Hello guys. Wonderful work here. I just enjoyed reading your web blogs and wanted to thank for all your excellent work here. Wish you all the best!