My 2010 New Media Predictions

Beware a prognosticator who isn’t honest about past prognostication. How did I do with my 2009 predictions? I’m calling 4 out of 5.

    2009 Prediction #1 – Now that iPod finally has a competitor in the Zune, you’ll see advances this year in new media aggregation that can only come from stiff competition. Was wrong there, but I’d like to say this … iPod doesn’t yet have a competitor in the Zune. Technically, it’s a great device with a great infrastructure, but until Microsoft figures out the marketing and positioning, it’s is going to remain a great device that nobody knows about. And, until everyone “knows” about it, this prediction can’t come to pass.

    2009 Prediction #2 – The meme that “nobody will pay for content” will quietly die. Check. We’ve got multiple 6-figure Podcasts in Hulu is trying the trial balloon of charging for content. Apple ads monthly subscriptions to the iPhone App Infrastructure. Is the concept “dead” yet – not quite – but she’s on life support.

    2009 Prediction #3 – “Cable cutting” will become cool. The New York Times is reporting on it. The Boxee Box is coming (quicker than I thought it would). As per my last post, YouTube wants to bring television to your television. Roku has an $80 option. Nuff said.

    2009 Prediction #4 – The general public will stop treating microblogging (Twitter) as a 24×7 chat room and find some very strong business uses for it. The biggest pleasant surprises of the year for me have included the incredible web client and the book Socialnomics (Erik Qualman, author of the book, joined us on the most recent episode of Internet Marketing This Week). CoTweet is a management system for Twitter that makes her a darn effective crm system and Socialnomics will prove to you that this is all much more than what “the kids” are doing.

    2009 Prediction # 5- There will be no real competitor to the iPhone in 2009. Nuff said.

So, now, predictions for 2010 …

    There will be no real competitor to the iPhone in 2010. There are a number of reasons for this. The 2 biggest are the fact that Apple will make some big announcements next year (including iPhone on other networks and the tablet). These moves will get the press that any iPhone “competitor” can only dream of. The issue is that no phone company yet “gets” what makes the iPhone great. How stupid is AT&T to let this slip away from them?

    “App Stores” will become the goto model for everyone. App Stores are easy, sexy, and considered by many to be a “proven” model because of the success of the iPhone. The “proven” part is examined in a later prediction. All the phones are doing it, and we’ll be seeing it inside of other systems – ebook readers, OSs, cable systems, any connected device.

    We’ll see some desperate last gasps for relevancy from the cable companies. They are scared to death because the only thing that people really want from them – they no longer have a monopoly on. They will, out of fear, try to create monopolies – because this is all they know. It won’t work. It’s gonna be ugly. This one might take longer than 2010 – but we’ll see the rumblings of it this year. NBComcast anyone?

    Hulu 1/1/2010 will be dramatically different than Hulu 12/31/2010. And by dramatically different I mean way less free stuff (or way more commercials). I’ve said from day one that she ain’t sustainable and the “big media” companies aren’t going to stand for it much longer.

    The “App Economy” and easy distribution and product creation models will flood the economy with a bunch of great stuff at prices that can’t sustain businesses. It’s gonna be messy. I’m not looking forward to this one at all – but it is inevitable. The app economy has created a world where 99 cents is standard and anything over that is eyed with suspicion. Not good. The press continues to propagate the meme. Also not good. This can only bring more crap barely worth 99 cents and tech and content companies selling at a reduced rate hoping to make up for it in volume. Niche is not a volume game. It’s going to be ugly. Please don’t fall victim to this one – people will pay well for the right content, services, and software.

So, I leave the comments open hoping to hear/read what you think. #5 is the one that I think will impact us the most – but all are important issues.

Please note: I reserve the right to delete comments that are offensive or off-topic.

  • johnfhunt

    I still don't get how Hulu is making it. Love to hear any predictions regarding the use of cloud computing. John F. Hunt/

  • Paul Colligan

    Hulu isn't making it and has no means to make it in their existing model. That's the problem. Cloud computing is real and just the logical progression – privacy is the big issue.

  • Nancy Hendrickson

    I think the $.99 app is as daft as the $.99 Kindle book. You just can't survive on it even if you get decent volume.

  • Doug S

    I agree with your predictions, but I wonder about the death of Cable Co. what about live events.

    I guess YouTube proved it's possible with the Live U2 broadcast… so once we have have YouTube on everything, they are dead…. Just answered my own question! :) but were probably a few years away from everyone getting their media via YouTube… I think they probably have a few more years left…

    Just like I heard about a local church ministry excited that they are able to broadcast over the air! Like UHF channel 62! Some things never seem to die…

  • Paul Colligan

    The cable companies never made money in providing services – they made money in being a monopoly. Think Microsoft versus Apple.

    Remember here, I haven't predicted their death, they're just not going to look like (and will go down trying) what they look like right now. They're going to try to be important, they just won't be.

  • Paul Colligan

    Exactly – but you're thinking this stuff through – most won't – most aren't.

  • Doug S

    Agreed the Monopoly is the issue… In fact I just had an encounter with ESPN360 over the weekend. A Disney wholly owned property to deliver live events via the interwebs… I'm sure to keep ESPN's relationships with the monopoly's they only offer it through broadband(cable) providers… So, I'm at the Grand California Hotel at Disneyland(another Disney owned property) which offers free Wifi and in room internet access… but no ESPN 360… I'm guessing ESPN360 is thrown in as a bone to the Cable Cos… and they would throw a major fit, if they released it to all…Dead no, Irrelevant yes…

  • Doug S

    but nobody has seemed to figure out the value of a single app/song/tvshow/movie, let alone figure out how much someone is going to pay.

    The masses want free but the hardcore fans will pay anything, especially if there's a limited supply or access..

  • Justin Brooke

    Looks like WebTV was about a decade to early… I think Youtube on your TV is closer then we think. They just need to give every one a reason to connect their TV's to the Internet and we're there – I'm already doing it and so are some family members.

  • Paul Colligan


  • Terrance Charles

    Paul, I agree and like these 2 predictions about Twitter and about content management. Twitter is GOOD for business, twitter drives traffic hands down, one of my biggest referrers to my website, it will be further monetized for businesses though, instead of just chatting like you mentioned. Content management will become more strict in cost instead of just freely available, you will still have some good free content out there, but your going to really see people putting a value on it and charging, no doubt about it.

  • Len Charnoff

    Kudos on your analytical insights. I might disagree with you on no competition for the Iphone in 2010. Google is the 500 lb Gorilla in the room.

  • netkickstart

    They have before and/or in-movie ads.

  • Paul Colligan

    I actually meant Twitter more as customer relationship management in CRM – versus content management. But – points still good here. Thanks!

  • Paul Colligan

    Lenny – nobody compares any phone to the Android. Until they do, she ain't the 500lb gorilla in the room.

  • Steinar Knutsen

    Great predictions. Good thing I just got accepted into the iPhone Developer Program this morning. No crap, I promise.

  • Paul Colligan

    We'll hold you to that.

    And, do yourself a favor, don't do 99 cent apps either.

  • Paul Colligan

    We'll hold you to that.

    And, do yourself a favor, don't do 99 cent apps either.

  • bigskynau

    Paul – Great insights! I tried cutting the cord to cable and DirectTV a year ago by running Boxee on my AppleTV. It was just not yet there but your right it is close. I now also have the Xbox360 and with the AppleTV once I can get my arms around how to best work this it will be great!

  • drewdeal

    Hi Paul I am local and the author of
    We should meet for lunch some time in 2010. Andrew.

    Anyway, I think the mobile web app will eclipse the native iphone and android apps, as getting to an app and using it will never be easier than through the URL. (acronym has actual meaning here). It is the same trend we saw toward web apps on our PC's.

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