I Promised You Some Numbers – Here They Are (And More Questions)

Posted by Paul Colligan on Friday, August 8, 2008

A lot of numbers in this one – but very important. I’d also LOVE your comments on my findings (and even more questions) below:

On July 15, I wrote of a little experiment I was running. You can read the full details (and reasons for the test) here. I also promised to give you some numbers … so here they are:

On the mailing in question, we had a very decent 17% clickthrough rate. I’d be very happy with that every time in email campaigns. I feel this was a nice sampling to pull numbers from.

On terms of affiliate link to non-affiliate link, 1.7 clicks on the affiliate link (2nd click) to every 1 click on the non-affiliate link (1st click).

Yes, some people just click on the first link they see without reading. I understand that.

But, that was almost one out of every 3 clicks. I might run a similar test with my link first but … fascinating none the less.

And, remember I never told that list I was running this test – we might “expect” more on the Blog post numbers but not here …

So, how did the Blog test do? Worse.

It was almost 1.5 clicks to my affiliate link to every 1 click to the non-affiliate link.

I.e., 33% of my clicks lost me money when I let them know the option for me to lose money was there.

Yes, this audience knew what I was doing, so I’m sure there were plenty of clicks to the non-affiliate link just to see what it did, so I won’t pound these numbers into the ground – but they are fascinating none the less.

How did this do with the (commented) predictions posted in the previous post?

Sid suggested 82.5% would click on my affiliate link.

Marc suggested 90% would click on the first link because it was, simply, the first link.

Rory said 64% link #2 (my affiliate link).

Garrett was the other side of Marc with 90% on link 2 – because people “like” me. Thanks for the kind thought, Garrett.

Marcus said 69.3% on the affiliate link.

Richard agreed with Garrett.

Marcus wins the Dr. Horrible purchase on iTunes. I’ll be emailing you soon buddy.

So, what does this all mean … ?

First of all, double-digit losses in any form need to be given serious attention. The idea that a third of my audience might go another way simply because I gave them the option to do so doesn’t set well with me. You?

And remember, this isn’t people choosing not to buy this is (at least appears to be) people saying “yes, I’m interested in your content but I don’t wish for you to profit from the service your providing for me.

Or am I misreading this?

Is there a subconscious element to online users who don’t like people making money from them? Is there some crazy disconnect that makes them willingly go the path of making sure you don’t profit? Would they do it with “big guys” if they felt empowered to do so? Perhaps does the majority of the online user base simply feel used – and this is there way of “using” someone back? Is this the behavior we see in the hatred for Microsoft and the open source movement?

Perhaps we have an audience that doesn’t consume our content the way we want them to? Was Marc right, is it simply we need to give people better directions?

Is “full disclosure” a good thing, or a marketing mistake? Would ANY industry survive with a “I only want to make money from the people who want me to make money” attitude? Harsh question, but it needs to be asked. What’s your answer?

I’ll be chewing on these results for awhile and will be certainly testing some more.

I’d love your thoughts …

  • Laura Abro

    I think people absolutely do try to prevent people from making money from them online. I used to go out of my way to avoid affiliate links – I felt like people were trying to trick and use me. It wasn’t until I started earning a living online myself that I saw things from the other side and realized that affiliate links are not evil.

    Having said that, I personally feel that any affiliate commissions earned from my purchases should be just that – earned, either by adding direct value to my purchase (bonus, coupon, etc), or by having a history of trustworthiness and valuable content. If an affiliate has not provided either of these, I will still go out of my way to avoid the affiliate link.

    I’m probably a weirdo, though. :)

  • http://www.paulcolligan.com Paul Colligan

    Thanks for the honesty Laura.

    Paul

  • http://www.yourseomentor.com Garrett Pierson

    Very interesting Paul!!! I don’t think there is some magical subconscious level that people knowingly don’t want you to make money but then again who know really, this could even be seasonal or circumstantial (i.e. the down economy) you can read into it many different ways. I still believe that if you provide great content and have built great relationships of trust people will always be willing to help you (or give you money)!

    What you might want to look at is the number of Unique New visitors that you received during this test, and see how many were totally new visitors, this could play a role in the numbers because these people didn’t know or trust you.

    Just some thoughts.

    Thanks for the great test Paul.

    Garrett Pierson
    YourSEOMentor.com

  • http://www.windrosesoftware.com Leslie Rohde

    Paul,
    I think your blog-based experiment might be flawed. Here’s why.

    YOU know the choice being offered and YOU know what those two links mean, both functionally and in money terms, but your assertion that your visitors understand “the option for me to lose money” is a CONCLUSION that does not necessarily follow.

    I don’t think you’ve separated factors. I claim that your result combines what you were looking for along with (a) folks that didn’t read, (b) folks that did not understand what they did read and (c) link position [which I will grant likely interacts with the first two but includes folks that simply do not care about the choice].

    You might query Andy Edmonds about this one — he being our staff cognitive psychologist — to see how you might build a more precise test. Or he might tell you I’m full of it!

    In any case, neat test. See you in a couple weeks.

    Leslie

  • http://www.webtesch.de Detlev Tesch

    Hi Paul.

    Interesting numbers! Yes, I find that (at least some) people get very suspicious when they are recommended products and the recommender makes a profit from that. That goes for affiliate links as well as for MLM/networkmarketing.

    In the past I have found myself avoiding affil links when for some reason I didn’t like the person or the way they conveyed the offer.

    Think Laura is right – adding value or/and having a history of trust will go a long way.

    And while this is not exactly a scientific test with undisputable conclusions I still think it is very interesting for any marketer. It gives us something to think about. Like: I would have thought that the moral attitude of full disclosure would have gotten far more “credit” from people who so often complain about lack of moral attitude in marketers. May have been naive…

    Anyway, I thank you for doing the test and reporting on the results.

    Detlev

  • http://www.businesswordsmiths.com Sid

    Thanks, Paul. Was it optimism or wishful thinking on my part that had me propose such a high percentage would click the affiliate link? I honestly can’t say, but probably a bit of both.

    I think it does say something about human psychology, although the test wouldn’t pass muster in the scientific community. While some people do click on the first link without reading (or comprehending what they’re reading), I’ve noticed a tendency for people to keep others from having what they wish they had.

    it’s basic scarcity mentality.

    Perhaps you can test the “people click the first link” theory by creating an email with multiple links. Each link offers the exact same thing, but is a different URL for tracking purposes.

    What this test does tell me is that I should keep my options simple. “Click here” should suffice.

    Sid

  • http://www.newprimetime.com Elizabeth Harrington

    Interesting results Paul…..I have also had some misgivings re expected outcomes when I allow myself to be transparent and explain the referral/affiliate link….as you have experienced, I have been stunned that
    people close to me have opted NOT to give me the affiliate commission. SO befuddled I am with those results and understanding human behaviour? I agree that the best place to start is by educating people as to what it really means. On a personal level, I do place a great deal of importance on the value I am receiving from a source. Are they trusted? Do they give me great value on a consistent basis? Like you do? Then I gladly click on the affiliate link-in fact just did that for you with the Big Seminar 12 preview call offers. Let’s keep this conversation going-important stuff.
    Elizabeth