New Media Predictions For 2008

Posted by Paul Colligan on Thursday, December 27, 2007

You can decide how I did on my 2007 predictions, but I’m gonna claim 5 for 5. Here are my New Media predictions for 2008:

  • One major podcast network goes down in flames. The model of the “Podcast Network” is flawed. The goal here isn’t to be “the next network” – the goal is to be what happens after the networks kill themselves off (which, by the way, is happening much quicker than I thought it would). Hopefully, those remaining will learn from the fire and change their ways. Note: I have no firsthand knowledge of any specific network about to die – it is just destined to happen.
  • The writer’s strike doesn’t help a single internet celeb go mainstream. As cool as that would be, and as much as i’d like to think it “could happen” – sadly, it won’t. As hungry as the public will be for non-reality content very soon, we won’t be seeing the Ninja on NBC. Of course, I expect a lot of NBC’s audience to find the Ninja while they’re searching for “anything new” – but that is another story all together.
  • Microsoft Zune podcasting numbers will get impressive quickly. It’s very cool within the echo chamber to dismiss Microsoft’s Podcasting play but that facts are this – it’s real. We saw a nearly 300% increase in traffic at ZuneLuv.com on Christmas day. The numbers will grow, the Podcast mechanism will get better. The numbers will tell the truth.
  • Managed RSS systems become popular and important.
     Sure, yes, this is why we built Premiumcast.com and why I’m on the boad of advisors for Casgle.com – this is important. RSS is THE paradigm for syndicated content on the Internet but the Google Readers of the world are not the ideal consumption mechanism for my Mom. Somehow, someway, it’s gonna get personalized and it ain’t gonna be tied to any one service or system.
  • The term “podcast” becomes synonymous with “channel” for the general public. This has to happen if we’re going to pierce our current ceiling. The strength of the Podcast is the option for it to be transparent. We need to get there asap. This is more a hope/dream of my own but it is what I’ll be working for this year.

Thoughts? Predictions of your own?

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  • http://www.cc-chapman.com C.C. Chapman

    The first two are dead on for sure. I wouldn’t even limit the first one to only one network, but things are not going to go in the direction that some people think. I said the same thing at the PME this year.

    I also really like the last one. I like it a lot and I sure as hell HOPE that is what happens. I’m going to try my damnedest to help it along :)

  • http://www.profectio.com Dave Forde

    Paul – why the sudden spike to ZuneLuv.com? It isn’t like the Zune has become that much of a better product especially when you look at the iPod family.

    Phew – finally we can stop calling a podcast!!!

  • http://www.paulcolligan.com Paul Colligan

    C.C.- we’ll take your help.

    Dave – Lotta people got Zunes for Christmas – hence the spike. And, yes, it actually is a much better product right now. Podcasting is wireless and subscription is handled on the client. iPod don’t got that. Cool thing is, iPod will get it now that it finally has some real competition.

    Paul

  • http://gdayworld.thepodcastnetwork.com Cameron Reilly

    Paul, people have been predicting our demise since day one. If you keep it up every year, eventually, someone may get it right. I don’t think the model of a group of podcasters getting together to share traffic, techniques, contacts and experience is flawed at all. I suspect a few networks took a whole bunch of money which they are struggling to show a return on, but that, my friend, is a whole other story. Bad business decisions does not always equal a bad business model.

  • http://www.paulcolligan.com Paul Colligan

    Cameron,

    “Getting together to share traffic, techniques, contacts and experience” is perfect.

    Doing that in an expensive office with a humongo staff is silly. It’s collecting millions to make pay for silly business decisions that will cause the fire. It’s that whole “next network” model where they try to act like “the big guys.”

    Don’t worry, you ain’t doing that. I’ll add in prediction #6 that you’ll be around next year buddy – if that helps ;-)

    Paul

  • http://gdayworld.thepodcastnetwork.com Cameron Reilly

    Well I was going to suggest we make it interesting and put a year of your salary against a year of mine on the bet that we’ll be around a year from now, but you’ve just taken the steam out of that fight. :-)

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